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All Last: your chance of finishing 4th
You're in 3rd or 4th and South 4 is starting. Pick your seat and the gap. You get the chance of 4th and the full placement spread.
Your chance of 4th
3rd, 4th isn't the dealer, gap Under 1,000:
35.5%chance you fall to 4th
Based on 8,693 South 4 starts.
| Final place | Share | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3.4% | 292 |
| 2nd | 9.3% | 811 |
| 3rd | 51.8% | 4,505 |
| 4th | 35.5% | 3,085 |
- You start
- 3rd, 4th isn't the dealer
- Gap
- Under 1,000
How to use this
- Pick your place at the start of All Last and who's the dealer.
- Pick the gap between 3rd and 4th. Under 1,000 means 100 to 900 points: a tie is left out.
- Read the headline as your chance of 4th. The table under it shows every final place.
What the number counts
- Every hand that starts in South 4 counts, dealer repeats included. A dealer who keeps the seat shows up once per hand.
- Places come from the final scores, so a game that goes into the West round counts where it really ended.
- A tie on the final score counts as the worse place. Tenhou breaks ties by seat, so a few games land one place off.
Where the numbers come from
Tenhou Houou logs 2016–2020, analysis by chienshyong (fork of Euophrys/houou-analysis)
The tool reads AllLast.csv: final places for the players in 3rd and 4th, by the gap between them and by who's the dealer. Shares are each count over its row total.
The original analysis code is Euophrys/houou-analysis. The tool reads the published result tables as they stand and does the division itself.
These numbers are statistical guidance for Houou-level 4-player hanchan. Your table, the scores and your reads can make a different play right.
Want a pro to check your real hands?
The table says how often a gap holds. It doesn't say which tiles to push to hold it. Send me a log and I'll go through your All Last decisions hand by hand.
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