Free tool待ち
Riichi wait win rate
How often does your wait win? Real Tenhou Houou numbers for 101 shapes, from a fresh ryanmen to a tanki with two copies already gone.
Ryanmen. Example shape: 34
Ryanmen, 3-6, 0 visible outs:
58.1%win rate
8 of 8 winning tiles unseen. Based on 218,506 hands.
Furiten: no data at this count
- All counts
- 50.3% of 843,530
- Won by tsumo
- 28.8% of hands
How to use this
- Pick your wait shape. The groups follow the source workbook.
- Count the copies of your winning tiles you can see: discards, calls, dora indicators and the rest of your hand. Pick that number.
- Read the win rate, the furiten rate and an example hand from the logs.
- Tap Compare another wait to put up to three waits side by side.
What the numbers assume
- Each rate is the share of logged hands with that wait and that many visible outs that went on to win. The games come from Tenhou's Houou room, so your opponents defend well.
- Visible outs count the winning tiles you can see beyond the ones your wait shape holds. A 2-3 waiting on 1-4 with nothing showing is 0. For a single-tile wait, a tanki's own tile counts, so a bare tanki is 1.
- Waits are suit-free. 1-4-7 means 1-4-7 in any one suit, and honor means any honor tile.
- Furiten rates cover hands that already discarded a winning tile, so they only win by tsumo. Outside ryanmen and sanmenchan those samples are thin.
- Rates built on fewer than 200 hands carry a small-sample warning. Some counts come from a different, wider shape in the source, and the tool flags those too.
Where the numbers come from
Wait win rates: Path of Houou (pathofhouou.blogspot.com), from Tenhou Houou logs
Path of Houou's replay analysis gives the win rate, sample size, tsumo share and an example hand for every wait at every count of visible outs. This tool reads the curated sheet of that workbook as it stands, checked cell by cell against the raw tables.
These numbers are statistical guidance for Houou-level 4-player hanchan. Your table, the scores and your reads can make a different play right.
Want a pro to check your real hands?
A win rate tells you how good a wait is on average. A review tells you whether riichi, dama or a better wait was right in your game. Send me a log and I'll go through it hand by hand.
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